Monetary Policy, Billionaires, Income, Wealth Tax, Inflation, & More

Below is an edited email I recently sent to family & a few friends.

.............................

If things were on the up & up in private Finance & Fed Gov't monetary matters:  the price of an ounce of gold would be $21,593; and

the price of silver would be $3,054 per oz.

In 1913, the year the Fed Reserve started operating, gold was $28.82;

silver was $2.66.  Now they are about $1,814 and $25, respectively.

NOTE:  be sure to read at least the "p.s." below.  Something very few people know, & quite interesting relative to today.

The median new home price now is $357,700.  In 2000, it was $165,543.  In 1980 it was $47,200.  In 1940 it was $2,948.  [We've been told over & over that the Fed Reserve is controlling inflation.  Hmmm - really?  In 1961, I bought a new pair of Levi's jeans for $3.95 in Colorado.  Today, those same jeans are around $50 or so.  Since 1961, the per unit cost of producing jeans has gone down.]

Adult worker median income is now $35,567.  So, HALF of U.S. adult workers make less than that.  [And Jeff B. Amazon thanks us all for making possible his HAM-the-chimp-astronaut flight to the edge of Space:]

The U.S. national debt is now over $28.5 trillion.  The principal never will be paid off; interest payments are around one billion $ per day.  Total U.S. debt (public & private) is a tad over $85 trillion.  [Worldwide debt is $281 trillion.]

Source:  U.S. Debt Clock

I leave it to each of you to assess what this all means for the future.

p.s.  The Super-Rich are fighting like crazy against a legislative bill which would impose a wealth tax on billionaires only of 3 cents per dollar of income.  3 cents.  It would pay for most of the Gov't programs being proposed lately.  Apparently it's too much to ask of billionaires, all of whom stood on the shoulders of society to get where they are.  [There's no such thing as a self-made billionaire.  Society provided them with education, infrastructure of many sorts, medical care, opportunities, social networks, communication, a civil habitat, & more. Yes, they helped pay for all that, but then, so did we all.]

Keep this in mind:  the 1st permanent U.S. Income Tax did not apply to wages.  It was only on passive income, and it only affected the top 2% of U.S. citizens.  It was promoted as a "Soak the Rich" tax just before being passed into Law.

https://twitter.com/ScottHa85992272

..............................

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Terrestrial Vertebrate Populations and the Ongoing Sixth Mass Extinction on Earth

If you would like a good grasp of Earth's sixth mass extinction, the link below explicitly explains the urgency of it in graphic terms.  The scholarly article is relatively short, well illustrated, and right on the mark.  Are you pressed for time?  At least scroll down a bit at the link to Figures 2 & 3, (especially Fig. 2) and don't just glance at them.  Study the "key" at the bottom of each one, and then the three different columns of each Figure.

http://www.ceres.ens.fr/IMG/pdf/ceballos-etal-2017-pnas.pdf

Some people (even some who should know better) don't believe there is an ongoing sixth mass extinction.  Furthermore, they don't see biodiversity loss as being of any major importance to humans.  Most likely, that's because they don't yet see any large numbers of individual species going extinct, and they aren't considering the decline of populations as important or significant.  Finally, they apparently don't understand the role of biodiversity in natural ecosystems, or how human survival is related to those ecosystems.

In biology, a population is a group of similar organisms (e.g., mammals, birds, amphibians, etc.) or often, a specific species (e.g., Canis lupus).  Population studies of any group of organisms are done in a particular geographic area.  Populations exist in specific areas.  So, for example, the arctic fox is not found in the tropics.  :) 

Prior to any species going forever extinct, there's a significant decline in their population numbers.  The decline happens in different areas, and rates of decline may vary from place to place.  If the decline continues, ultimately the inevitable result is extinction.

The point being:  simply because species are not yet totally disappearing in massive numbers in no way means a mass extinction is not underway.  Why does it not mean that?  Because declines in populations precede final extinction, and currently, population declines are significant.  For example, since 1970 the worldwide populations of wildlife vertebrates on land have declined by 68%.  It's even worse in aquatic habitats.  [Source:  Living Planet Report 2020, by the World Wildlife Fund.]

That's a wake-up call.

....................

Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The massive EV problem in the USA

 It's the fault of our Government.  Specifically, AC v. DC relative to converter infrastructure is not standardized at charging stations, and also is often nonexistent.  Large numbers of U.S. consumers never will buy EVs until this changes.

https://twitter.com/ScottHa85992272/status/1417707779666628611?s=20

and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLcqJ2DclEg&list=WL&index=81&t=911s [At least watch from about 12:30 to 18:00. That's the core of the piece.]

Europe has it right on this one.

....................

Not only my opinion. Be Well

"The Big Kahuna, Part II"

 Below is an email I recently sent to family and a few friends.

...............

 In the last month or so---

1.  Michael Burry ("The Big Short") says:  the worst Crash in history ("the mother of all crashes") is coming...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/big-short-michael-burry-deletes-twitter-predicts-epic-market-crash-2021-6  AND -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QhXIQAAo2E

2.  Ray Dalio (who has managed a $150 billion Fund for decades, & from whom nat'l gov'ts have sought advice) says:  the Asset Bubble is about to collapse, & it will be "worse than 2008"...  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Gpg6KDFsI

3.  Bill Gates has sold large blocks of his stocks in companies this yr - he sold 100% of them in Amazon, Apple, & Twitter...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcuIswW3B3o

4.  Warren Buffett also has sold large amounts of his stock portfolio this yr., and says massive inflation is coming.

5.  On the other hand, a few economists & financial gurus are saying the inflation will be temporary, followed by Depression-like deflation, thus causing the Crash.

Does all this definitively prove anything... obviously, no... but it does suggest that people a lot smarter than me are extremely worried about the big kahuna being just around the corner.  [I thought it should have hit 4-5 yrs ago:] 

So, you have nothing to lose by preparing accordingly.  At the very least, having extra household goods on hand (& rotating them as needed) is no big deal - Crash or no Crash, you'll use them anyway.   

Everyone Be Well, & Be Prepared... just in case

End of Reminder   

..........

Contrary to what the gentlemen above are saying, irrational exuberance currently seems to be the flavor of the day in government and on Wall Street.  To some degree or another, it all reminds me of the Tulip Asset craze a long time ago in the Netherlands.  As a species, will we ever learn the consequences of Bubbles?

Not only my opinion.

Land Use RE: Energy and Mining Resource Extraction Footprints

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800921001646?dgcid=raven_sd_via_email

In case the link doesn't work---

From the journal, Ecological Economics, Volume 187 -

"Energy matters: Mitigating the impacts of future land expansion will require managing energy and extractive footprints".

High Tech (& Tech in general) gobbles up such a large amount of natural minerals, and all of us gobble up such a large amount of fossil fuel energy, that those two categories have an ecological footprint almost as large as agriculture when it comes to the disruption of natural habitats.  This is one of the main reasons that biodiversity is rapidly plunging.

The authors of the above article propose mitigation actions for the future.

The human land use dilemma is growing, and overconsumption plays a major role.  Here's only one example:  no one really needs a new cell phone every year or two.  The production of just ONE phone uses up about 500 pounds of natural resources, and that requires more & more extraction from the land.

As to energy, nearly all of us in highly developed countries use too much of that.  The situation must undergo a paradigm shift if the world is to achieve sustainability.

The entire downhill slide we're on as a species is driven by the rat race of unlimited growth and too much consumption.  From what I've seen, too many people seem to believe we can continue on with both of those if we just convert to a Green Economy.  That's erroneous thinking.  Many studies have shown it to be so.  Links to some of them have been posted on this venue for the past year-plus.  "Going Green" and continuing on with the growth & consumption of the past decades simply are not compatible.

Ecological economics and the concept of a Steady State Economy have been around for years and years.  They've been marginalized and denigrated by the "growth" Establishment, particularly by the Plutocrats (both private and public).

If we are to survive and thrive, it's time for a major change.  To overcome the Establishment propaganda, education - formal & informal - and activism are key.

...................

Not only my opinion.  Be Well