"The Big Kahuna, Part II"

 Below is an email I recently sent to family and a few friends.

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 In the last month or so---

1.  Michael Burry ("The Big Short") says:  the worst Crash in history ("the mother of all crashes") is coming...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/big-short-michael-burry-deletes-twitter-predicts-epic-market-crash-2021-6  AND -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QhXIQAAo2E

2.  Ray Dalio (who has managed a $150 billion Fund for decades, & from whom nat'l gov'ts have sought advice) says:  the Asset Bubble is about to collapse, & it will be "worse than 2008"...  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Gpg6KDFsI

3.  Bill Gates has sold large blocks of his stocks in companies this yr - he sold 100% of them in Amazon, Apple, & Twitter...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcuIswW3B3o

4.  Warren Buffett also has sold large amounts of his stock portfolio this yr., and says massive inflation is coming.

5.  On the other hand, a few economists & financial gurus are saying the inflation will be temporary, followed by Depression-like deflation, thus causing the Crash.

Does all this definitively prove anything... obviously, no... but it does suggest that people a lot smarter than me are extremely worried about the big kahuna being just around the corner.  [I thought it should have hit 4-5 yrs ago:] 

So, you have nothing to lose by preparing accordingly.  At the very least, having extra household goods on hand (& rotating them as needed) is no big deal - Crash or no Crash, you'll use them anyway.   

Everyone Be Well, & Be Prepared... just in case

End of Reminder   

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Contrary to what the gentlemen above are saying, irrational exuberance currently seems to be the flavor of the day in government and on Wall Street.  To some degree or another, it all reminds me of the Tulip Asset craze a long time ago in the Netherlands.  As a species, will we ever learn the consequences of Bubbles?

Not only my opinion.

Crucial Issues for Spaceship Earth

 Growth, economic resilience, recovery, & inequity:

doughnut-shaped-recovery-executive-summary.pdf (leeds.ac.uk)  (With a link to the full article)

Social rights & planetary boundaries:

Securing the social foundation: A rights-based approach to planetary boundaries - ScienceDirect

Water scarcity & Wall Street vultures:

Wall Street Vultures Are Ready to Get Rich From Water Scarcity | The New Republic

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If the world returns to our pre-covid economic paradigm, then the Boom-Bust Cycle, economic fragility, eco-disasters (including pandemics), and social injustice/inequity again will be our lot.  It should be clear by now that we must bring about a massive paradigm shift to a new economics, an ecocentric relationship to the natural environment, and social justice.  It's not only that those things would be "nice", it's also that they are necessary if organized human existence is to survive and thrive on Spaceship Earth.

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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

The Pandemic, the Economy, Politics, and the Ongoing Income Inequality in the USA

 The Rich Are Cheering Wall Street’s Latest Records. Americans of Modest Means Are Draining 401(k)s. - Inequality.org

The bottom 50% of income earners in the USA hold only 0.6% of the country's stock holdings.  The poorest 90% hold only 11.8% of the nation's stocks.  The richest one percent hold 52.4% of all stocks.  That's all according to the Fed Reserve.

Due to the pandemic, the Super-Rich are doubling and tripling their incomes.  Those people of modest means are draining their 401k accounts just to pay the bills.  Meanwhile, the politicians have stopped providing relief... or even talking about it with each other.

As I've pointed out in the past, the Great Depression of the 1930's was not so named until halfway through it.  For about five years, people believed it was just a short-term glitch that would disappear very soon.  It should be clear by now that currently we are in a full-blown economic Depression.  Politicians, in particular, need to wake up to that fact.  GDP (loved by the Powers-That-Be as a measure of national well-being) in the USA fell by just shy of 33% in the Second Quarter of this year.

I'm getting the impression that a majority of people believe the vaccine will correct the situation.  For a variety of reasons, don't count on it.  One of those reasons is this:  the covid virus mutates rather quickly.  Another reason:  no vaccine in history ever has been so RUSHED as this one.  Despite the reassurances of everyone involved, that means there's perhaps a 50-50 chance of a monumental problem.  Another reason:  it's highly likely that many small businesses have closed for good.  Vaccine or not, they won't be back.  That's mainly due to dithering or dogmatic politicians.  Another reason:  millions of our fellow Americans still believe covid is no big deal.  That's a serious hindrance to getting back to some sort of "normal".  

If ever again, "normal" is most likely 2-5 YEARS down a rough road ahead.  Why do I say that?  Because of my academic education and field experience in biology, human ecology, and environmental geography.  Is the "2-5 YEARS" prediction guaranteed?  Of course not, it's an educated guess.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well