"The Big Kahuna, Part II"

 Below is an email I recently sent to family and a few friends.

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 In the last month or so---

1.  Michael Burry ("The Big Short") says:  the worst Crash in history ("the mother of all crashes") is coming...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/big-short-michael-burry-deletes-twitter-predicts-epic-market-crash-2021-6  AND -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QhXIQAAo2E

2.  Ray Dalio (who has managed a $150 billion Fund for decades, & from whom nat'l gov'ts have sought advice) says:  the Asset Bubble is about to collapse, & it will be "worse than 2008"...  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Gpg6KDFsI

3.  Bill Gates has sold large blocks of his stocks in companies this yr - he sold 100% of them in Amazon, Apple, & Twitter...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcuIswW3B3o

4.  Warren Buffett also has sold large amounts of his stock portfolio this yr., and says massive inflation is coming.

5.  On the other hand, a few economists & financial gurus are saying the inflation will be temporary, followed by Depression-like deflation, thus causing the Crash.

Does all this definitively prove anything... obviously, no... but it does suggest that people a lot smarter than me are extremely worried about the big kahuna being just around the corner.  [I thought it should have hit 4-5 yrs ago:] 

So, you have nothing to lose by preparing accordingly.  At the very least, having extra household goods on hand (& rotating them as needed) is no big deal - Crash or no Crash, you'll use them anyway.   

Everyone Be Well, & Be Prepared... just in case

End of Reminder   

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Contrary to what the gentlemen above are saying, irrational exuberance currently seems to be the flavor of the day in government and on Wall Street.  To some degree or another, it all reminds me of the Tulip Asset craze a long time ago in the Netherlands.  As a species, will we ever learn the consequences of Bubbles?

Not only my opinion.

The real reason why we're still in Afghanistan...

and never will leave completely unless we undergo a paradigm shift in economics.

https://campbellmgold.co.uk/archive_blowing_in_the_wind/afghanistan_mineral_riches.pdf  [Article by James Risen.]

Almost fifteen years ago, the USGS and the Pentagon discovered the probability is extremely high that Afghanistan is awash in mineral riches totaling about one trillion dollars.  Not only common minerals such as iron and copper are buried there, but those crucial to modern day industry (e.g., lithium) as well.

The world is at a point where mineral resources - especially rare earth minerals - are more and more difficult to access.  Afghanistan has never been mined to any significant degree.  Done in 2007, the USGS used highly sophisticated aerial survey equipment in a study which shows the country is ripe for extremely productive mining.

World leaders who are not pursuing sustainability are prone to believe that when it comes to critical natural resources, it's a "dog-eat-dog" world.  Sometimes such thinking results in long-term planning involving resource wars, or financial wars, or best case - diplomacy.  For decades, we've had all the above on planet Earth.

One way or another, the richer countries are going to get access to needed natural resources.  That's especially true when the country is on an unsustainable path, which currently is the case in the USA and many other well-off nations.

Sustainability is one of the keys to a peaceful future.  Ecological economics is the best path forward.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Transformations and Rethinking Development - Thanks to the Pandemic

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20303600?dgcid=raven_sd_recommender_email

From the journal, World Development Volume 138, February 2021, 105233 -

Article title: " Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development".

SSDD simply won't do anymore.  Neoliberal economics, the Oligarchy & Plutocracy Era, and the days of Crony-Casino-Disaster-Surveillance Capitalism are all at the beginning of their end.  Most likely, the combination of democratic socialism plus Adam Smith capitalism*** (a Mixed Economy) - which most free countries now have to varying degrees - will become stronger.  That, coupled with a genuinely eco-ethical approach to Nature & its resources, will be the new paradigm.

[*** As I've pointed out before, Adam Smith was in favor of small business, not mega business.  He denigrated the concept of monopolies, and rather than support them, he decried the so-called "Masters of the Universe" - the Big Biz men who thought they ruled the world.  His idea was for small business to benefit common people.]

Perhaps then, more people will understand that when we damage ecosystems because of genuine necessity, we should take care to keep the damage as small as possible.  Why?  Because one of the many key services provided by the ecosystems of Nature is:  they are natural barriers to the spread of disease.

The article at the link above addresses the following topics re post-pandemic development:

1.  science and policy;

2.  resilient economies;

3.  the nexus between the citizenry and the State; and

4.  new ways of thinking & acting in relation to all the above and sustainability.

While the article is about world development, especially re the North-South (in general) global inequality, I believe its concepts can be applied more regionally and locally, and to more equitable "development" in "developed" countries.  These ideas, I think, should start at the grassroots level (county, city).  Then State or Province and National politicians will be more amenable to instituting needed support at their levels.  From the bottom up is usually (not always) better than from the top down.  Those at the top sometimes seem to be out of touch with the practical reality of the everyday/common people.

It's highly probable that many researchers and some politicians, policy makers, and a few private companies (& others) have been working on sustainability & equity (in the ethical sense) since at least the 2008 Crash.  Now we need to kick that into high gear.  A massive shift is on the horizon, and there's no time to waste in getting to it.

Tick-tock.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Five pillars for post-neoliberal development

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X2030485X

Like Germany, Austria, Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, and several other countries outside North America, the Netherlands [with the journal article at the link above] demonstrates that it is light-years ahead of the USA when it comes to the concept of sustainability.  Kudos.

The article is right on the mark.  The full title is:

"Planning for a world beyond COVID-19: Five pillars for post-neoliberal development".

This is the type of thinking we need if organized human existence is to survive and thrive in the Anthropocene.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

American Totalism

This speaks for itself, and we have only ourselves to blame.

 American Totalism: Technology, Economy, and Nationality (steadystate.org) 

It's past time for a new paradigm.  Tick-tock.

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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

The Dynasty That Never Was, PLUS - It's Time to Dump Neoliberalism Forever

 Trump hates being Old News.  No one pays much attention to him anymore.  Lately, most of the focus has been on the Neoliberal & his Team.  That's great.  Trump should be totally shunned.  His mental illness is now more visible than ever before.  The more he blabbers about the election, & the more he virtually ignores the raging pandemic, the crazier he looks.  Even Repubs finally are taking note... jumping ship, resigning on their own, making public comments criticizing the Cult Leader.  It's about time.

Trump soon will leave in disgrace.  He'll still be around politics, making noise now & again; but that only will appeal to, at most, about 20% of the USA population... perhaps less.  The man-child finally is Old News.

The biggest testament to the political ignorance of Trump True Believers is their calling Biden a "socialist" (or a puppet of socialists).  Apparently, they know essentially nothing at all about neoliberalism (which isn't "new", or "liberal").  

I think we're the only country in the entire world with a majority of folks who don't have a clue about that ideology.  Everyone else gets it.  Plus, except for Oligarchs (& their puppets), everyone else despises it.  At least it's finally getting mentioned once in awhile in American public discourse.  Again, it's about time.

In my view, until this country fully understands neoliberalism, we will continue to have:  rule by Oligarchs/Plutocrats (whether Repub or Dem), gross inequality, perpetual war, the American "Empire", American hegemony, monopoly-crony-casino capitalism, increasing shrinkage of the middle class, increasing poverty, increasing privatization (which means high fees for "public" services), stagnated wages, less of a social safety net, more pandemics, more suicides (especially among veterans & other young people), more social unrest, more ecological devastation, more mega bank fraud, more propaganda, etc., ad nauseam.  

It's way past time for a paradigm shift which dumps neoliberalism forever.  Except for the Super-Rich, that ideology has been an utter failure.

More and more people around the world - especially in Europe, Canada, a significant portion of South America, parts of Africa, parts of Asia, & elsewhere - are realizing that we all must change our impact on the natural environment.  This is truly a turning point in human history.  Let's make it a good one.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

The Pandemic, the Economy, Politics, and the Ongoing Income Inequality in the USA

 The Rich Are Cheering Wall Street’s Latest Records. Americans of Modest Means Are Draining 401(k)s. - Inequality.org

The bottom 50% of income earners in the USA hold only 0.6% of the country's stock holdings.  The poorest 90% hold only 11.8% of the nation's stocks.  The richest one percent hold 52.4% of all stocks.  That's all according to the Fed Reserve.

Due to the pandemic, the Super-Rich are doubling and tripling their incomes.  Those people of modest means are draining their 401k accounts just to pay the bills.  Meanwhile, the politicians have stopped providing relief... or even talking about it with each other.

As I've pointed out in the past, the Great Depression of the 1930's was not so named until halfway through it.  For about five years, people believed it was just a short-term glitch that would disappear very soon.  It should be clear by now that currently we are in a full-blown economic Depression.  Politicians, in particular, need to wake up to that fact.  GDP (loved by the Powers-That-Be as a measure of national well-being) in the USA fell by just shy of 33% in the Second Quarter of this year.

I'm getting the impression that a majority of people believe the vaccine will correct the situation.  For a variety of reasons, don't count on it.  One of those reasons is this:  the covid virus mutates rather quickly.  Another reason:  no vaccine in history ever has been so RUSHED as this one.  Despite the reassurances of everyone involved, that means there's perhaps a 50-50 chance of a monumental problem.  Another reason:  it's highly likely that many small businesses have closed for good.  Vaccine or not, they won't be back.  That's mainly due to dithering or dogmatic politicians.  Another reason:  millions of our fellow Americans still believe covid is no big deal.  That's a serious hindrance to getting back to some sort of "normal".  

If ever again, "normal" is most likely 2-5 YEARS down a rough road ahead.  Why do I say that?  Because of my academic education and field experience in biology, human ecology, and environmental geography.  Is the "2-5 YEARS" prediction guaranteed?  Of course not, it's an educated guess.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

Covid-19, Global Economy, Ecosystems, and Circular Economy Strategies

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344920304869

Title:  "A critical analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy and ecosystems and opportunities for circular economy strategies".

From the journal, Resources, Conservation, & Recycling.

At least read the conclusion.  The whole piece is a good analysis of a crucial situation.

Again, I don't believe that the Circular Economy approach is the full answer to the socio-eco-econ Crisis we're in, but it is popular.  Perhaps it's a good First Step toward a version of Ecological Economics which will truly address the problems of unlimited growth and overconsumption.

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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

RE: Sustainability - Proposed Policies for Correcting the Human Predicament

 https://theconversation.com/limits-to-growth-policies-to-steer-the-economy-away-from-disaster-57721

The essay at the link above covers the following subjects:

1.  measuring progress,

2.  resource caps,

3.  work and time,

4.  public spending,

5.  banking and finance (and the built-in "growth imperative"),

6.  the population question,

7.  poverty (a rising tide will SINK all boats),

8.  hindrances.

Though the discussion is somewhat brief on each item above, many links to related pages are embedded in the article.

The piece is thought-provoking and, in my view, should be considered by all who are interested in mitigating the current human predicament.

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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

p.s.  Diagram is from the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (MAHB) at Stanford University.  https://mahb.stanford.edu/

The Real Scoop on Interest Rates and Nominal GDP "Growth"

 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916307510

The research at the above link is somewhat of a blockbuster.  With an empirical approach, it shows that "...conventional monetary policy as operated by central banks for the past half-century is fundamentally flawed".  Among other things, the research demonstrates that low interest rates do not cause economic growth, and "if policy-makers really aimed at setting rates consistent with a recovery, they would need to raise them".

This study has been available for over two years, but apparently, largely ignored.  It also delves into the effects of "quantities" (e.g., QE) on an economy, and further, why environmentally sustainable projects are better for the economy as opposed to growth for growth's sake.  In short, the study provides solidly based evidence that neoliberal economics has failed overall.  Of course, that same economic path has benefitted the Upper Crust immeasurably... which is probably why this study has been mostly ignored by the Powers-That-Be, both public and private.

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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

In General, Is This Close to the Bioeconomics Being Pursued in Europe?

I haven't had time to study the article at the link below, but thought I would post it with the title question.  While I'm reviewing the piece, does anyone know the answer to the question?  [I'm guessing the answer is Yes.]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567114000677

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You will have to scroll down when you get to the page in order to access the pdf text - "Download full text in PDF".

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Be Well

"The Blue Skies of Neoliberalism"

"The economy as if people mattered..." 2020

The open access articles at the links below are enlightening and much needed admonitions regarding the current misuse of "Green" terminology (circular, bioeconomics, Green New Deal, etc.), and the ethical problems inherent in the "Growth" (neoliberal) economy.  Neoliberal economics is attempting to paint itself green, thus supposedly justifying the continuation on the path of unlimited growth.

 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14747731.2020.1761612#aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGFuZGZvbmxpbmUuY29tL2RvaS9wZGYvMTAuMTA4MC8xNDc0NzczMS4yMDIwLjE3NjE2MTI/bmVlZEFjY2Vzcz10cnVlQEBAMA==

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800918317178?via%3Dihub

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It is abundantly clear by now that mainstream/neoliberal economics, more than any other relevant factor, is responsible for the disasters of:  the multi-faceted ecological crisis; rampant social & income inequality; an egregiously fragile economy; and a race to worldwide neofeudalism.  In addition to all that, neoliberals currently would have us believe:  the solution to all our problems is more & more efficient growth; and, with recycling, we don't need to worry about running out of natural resources.  Really?  No worries?

The above scenario is not the Bioeconomics of Georgescu-Roegen.  Not even close.  He emphasized biophysical limits, entropy, and finally, degrowth.  [Ever-changing "development" doesn't have to be "growth".]

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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

Georgescu-Roegen's Bioeconomics Approach to Development and Change

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (G-R), a highly skilled mathematician, epistemologist, & economist, was one of the thinkers who laid the bedrock for anything "Green" in economics.  He did so with his concept of Bioeconomics.

G-R spent much of his career at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.  His best known book, The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971), dealt not only with the two subjects in the title, but also science & thought, dialectics, epistemology, mathematical analysis, change/evolution, and society.  It's truly a "magnum opus".

Because the book detailed the problems and dangers of unlimited economic growth, it drew negative reactions from neoclassical/neoliberal economists.  After that, the work largely was ignored by mainstream economics.

G-R's Bioeconomics was/is genuinely revolutionary, and it's making a bigtime comeback.  In large part, that's due to the failures/problems of mainstream economics.  The two primary foundations of G-R's theory are as follows.
1. Human evolution, in addition to being within the body (endosomatic), has been outside the body (exosomatic) in the form of tools, machinery, industry, and external energy (e.g., fossil fuels).  Not only exosomatic manufactured components have become part of our evolution, but money as well.
2.  The recognition of the importance of qualitative change caused by new elements in economic processes is crucial to understanding economic reality.  [The mechanistic epistemology of neoclassical/neoliberal economics largely fails to account for such change because primarily (often only) mathematical analysis is used in constructing economic models.  Math formulas dominate.  G-R proposed a combination of math and a dialectical approach (involving discourse, discussion, & reasoned argumentation) in order to determine economic reality.]

In simpler terms, G-R maintained that neoclassical/neoliberal economics could not account for the unanticipated, unknown variables (e.g., the effects of industrial pollutants, social & income inequality, overharvesting of natural resources, and a plethora of anomalies in human behavior) in an economy because only math is used in economic analysis and prediction.  Dialectical reasoning - discussion of opposing views - is needed.  Input of words, not just math formulas.

In relation to development and change, G-R antagonized the mainstreamers by his insistence that economic analysis must be based on reality, observed facts, rather than mathematical abstractions.  He maintained that the neoclassical approach primarily consisted of nothing but conjecture.

For a much deeper look, see the article at the link below.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1467-7660.2009.01603.x

The economic genius of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen finally is being recognized.
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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

The "Green Economy" CANNOT Sustain Unlimited Economic Growth

Even for a moment, I shudder to think of the indoctrination going on in the world today relative to how the theoretical Green Economy (GEcon) will facilitate the continuation of perpetual economic GROWTH.  Is the GEcon a good thing for us?  Yes, it is.  Is continuing unlimited growth a good thing for us?  Absolutely not.  We can have one or the other, but not both.  Here's why.
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The journal article at the link below tackles the nexus of the GEcon and perpetual growth, and it does so with both qualitative and quantitative empirical evidence.  It not only analyzes all the factors involved, but applies synthesis to them as well.  Those factors include:  Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Domestic Material Consumption (DMC), decoupling, re-coupling, material & energy throughput, green growth, theoretical Tech innovation, global material footprint, unlimited economic growth, bioenergy with carbon capture & storage (BECCS), the IPAT equation, Eco-Crisis, ecology, natural resources, political ecology, and more.

The title and first paragraph of this essay give a partial hint, but I won't reveal the full conclusion of the linked article here because it's important (and worthwhile) to read the piece.  So, put on your thinking cap, buckle down, study it, and I believe you'll become a convert, so to speak.  This subject might seem boring to the "average" person, but just the fact that you're reading this means you're above average relative to concern over the ongoing Eco-Crisis.  So many solution options to consider - GEcon, Circular Econ, Bioecon, Steady State Econ, Ecological Econ, and various combinations of those.  If organized human existence is to survive and thrive, we have to get this right.  The article below will help tremendously.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964?src=recsys  ["Is Green Growth Possible", by Jason Hickel and Giorgos Kallis]
It's a "Free Access" journal article.

Given the years-long search for Sustainability (especially in the EU), the above article is crucial to deciding on the best path forward for humanity.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

More In-Depth Assessments of the "Circular Economy"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800918317178
and
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344920302354?dgcid=raven_sd_recommender_email

While the new Circular Economy and Circular Economics are positive steps forward, they - as presently described - appear to be insufficient in terms of addressing our impending / ongoing eco-catastrophe.  Serious problems are present in the current theory, chief of which are as follows.

1.  Circular economics seems to be wedded to the concepts of unlimited growth and overconsumption.  It's a nice package with a "green" ribbon, but appears to continue to ignore the biophysical constraints of the ecosphere.
2.  The theory is not yet definitively constructed.  There are a few different versions of it.

Neoliberal economics, which certainly adheres to unlimited growth & overconsumption and also ignores biophysical constraints, may be at the root of this new theory.  At this point, it's difficult to know whether or not that's true.

If you're really pressed for time, at least read the short Abstracts at the two links above.
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Not only my opinion.  Be Well

"Evolutionary theory of economic decisions"

New research suggests that policy makers and "the Market" often make wrong decisions when it comes to helping "poor people", especially subsistence farmers.
https://earth.stanford.edu/news/evolutionary-theory-economic-decisions#gs.dffa6q

Amen to that.  Poor people have the most to lose, not the least.
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Not only my opinion.  Stay Well

Free Book - "Beyond Growth" by Herman Daly

Below is a link to the online version of Beyond Growth - The Economics of Sustainable Development, by the renowned ecological economist, Herman Daly.

Some of the Figures/illustrations found in the regular book are not in this online text.
http://feineigle.com/static/books/2014/beyond_growth/Beyond%20Growth_The%20Economics%20of%20Sustainable%20Development-Herman%20E.%20Daly-(1997).pdf
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Be Well

Oligarchs, Cronies, Propaganda, Ethics, and a Bit of Political History

Preface
Before delving into Ecological Economics (in a subsequent post), let's have an introduction to the items in the title of this piece.  That will help us understand the tremendous obstacles faced by ecological economists in our plutocratic environment.
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http://individualsovereignty.blogspot.com/2014/07/evidence-of-oligarchy.html

http://individualsovereignty.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-oligarchy-handbook.html

http://individualsovereignty.blogspot.com/2016/10/wars-against-americans-conducted-by.html
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The above essays demonstrate the methods by which Oligarchs essentially control us, mold the public mind, and ensure a governance that favors the Super-Rich.  One of the results of their efforts is the egregious damaging and destruction of necessary natural systems.  If we are to survive and thrive, that has to stop.

We don't live in a truly participatory democracy.  Even our constitutional republic is rapidly disappearing; the Constitution often is ignored by national politicians.  On top of that, our Mixed Economy is being replaced at an ever-increasing rate by Crony Capitalism and Casino Capitalism.  It all benefits primarily the top tier of income earners.  Perhaps worst of all, many producers of goods feel they should not have to bear the cost of the negative "externality" known as pollution.  Too many of them believe it's not their problem.

This must stop.  How?  Peacefully---
"We be many; they be few."  ~ Arundhati Roy

Not only my opinion.  Happy Trails